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Research Map

A map of the SELRA research agenda.

The map follows the working paper's program branches and keeps status claims separate from the research agenda. It does not claim acceptance, adoption, datasets, collaborators, or case outcomes.

Selection methodology How should the correct project object be constructed before valuation?
Why it matters
Weak outcomes can begin before comparison, when the economic object is defined too narrowly or when admissible alternatives are filtered away.
Evidence burden
Admissible alternatives, object construction, ranking effects, robustness, and selection-stage loss quantification.
What later work must prove
Whether richer object construction changes rankings, how often selection-stage loss appears, and which omitted factors matter most.
Careful boundary
This branch does not establish a universal ranking method or complete valuation formula.
Economic-lifecycle realization How is selected value preserved into verified and durable result?
Why it matters
A well-selected project can still lose value through structuring, implementation, verification, guarantee design, or post-guarantee operation.
Evidence burden
Projected versus achieved effect, realization-stage loss, verification evidence, retention, and post-guarantee dynamics.
What later work must prove
How selected value erodes after approval and which realization structures preserve it under observable project conditions.
Careful boundary
Projected savings, completion, or a guarantee should not be treated as proof of durable economic effect.
Contract and implementation architecture How should obligations, guarantees, remedies, handover, and financing shells preserve selected value?
Why it matters
Contract form, implementation responsibility, remedies, and financing shells can reshape the selected economic object after approval.
Evidence burden
Responsibility allocation, enforceability, staged acceptance, risk-control alignment, warranty versus lifecycle protection, and capital-shell effects.
What later work must prove
Which structures reduce realization-stage loss and how responsibility, control, remedies, and handover interact.
Careful boundary
This branch should not be read as legal advice, a preferred financing scheme, or a universal contract template.
Evidence-generating project management What records and ledgers make realized value knowable rather than merely asserted?
Why it matters
Without disciplined records, later claims about value are difficult to distinguish from assertion, memory, or incomplete completion evidence.
Evidence burden
Selection, contractual, implementation, verification, and lifecycle records; deviation logs; evidence-status categories; and comparison data structures.
What later work must prove
Which records are sufficient for transparent reconstruction and how evidence status should be handled across cases.
Careful boundary
A checklist or short guide cannot replace project-specific evidence review.
Empirical case reconstruction How can real industrial cases reveal selection and realization mechanisms under imperfect evidence?
Why it matters
The domain usually lacks controlled experiments, so carefully reconstructed cases are central to learning without overstating certainty.
Evidence burden
Baseline reconstruction, full-completion reconstruction, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty envelopes, service-quality constraints, and transparent counterfactuals.
What later work must prove
How much can be inferred from imperfect cases and how sensitivity boundaries change interpretation.
Careful boundary
Individual cases should not be treated as universal proof, and confidential project evidence must remain protected.
Portfolio and scale generalization How does project-level discipline affect broader capital-allocation quality?
Why it matters
Repeated project-level selection-stage and realization-stage losses may lower the conversion of modernization capital into durable economic effect.
Evidence burden
Comparable cases, portfolio ranking, cross-project patterns, sector-level mechanisms, and links to aggregate under-realization of energy-efficiency potential.
What later work must prove
Whether project-level patterns generalize across portfolios or sectors and what the limits of that bridge are.
Careful boundary
This branch does not establish proven macro impact, national savings, or applicability to all energy projects.
Behavioral and institutional explanation Why do weak selection and realization routines persist despite foreseeable lifecycle losses?
Why it matters
If weak routines are persistent, the research program must explain organizational and institutional causes rather than only technical mistakes.
Evidence burden
Organizational routines, procurement incentives, cognitive simplification, institutional traps, principal-agent gaps, and possible selection-game equilibria.
What later work must prove
Which behavioral or institutional mechanisms are plausible, observable, and strong enough to explain persistence.
Careful boundary
A single behavioral explanation should not be presented as complete or universal.